Alex Hofmann on Mugello: Stoner scores Ducati’s most-important-ever win.

If you saw Casey Stoner being interviewed on TV in the aftermath of his win in Sunday’s Italian Moto GP, you’ll know that he was grinning from ear to ear and looking almost unable to believe his luck. But when I spoke to him on Saturday evening after qualifying, it was a very different story; he was edgy and unhappy, and not at all confident that he’d be able to get a competitive race-day performance out of his bike. And then it rained, on Sunday morning, and everything changed.

And what a fantastic race that the change of weather created! Up in the commentary box for German TV, we literally lost count of how many lead-changes there were, or the number of different riders who had been out in front. So much was going on, right through the field, that it was a tough job to keep up with it all, and our heart rates were going at 200mph - the same speed as the bikes out on the track! This might have been a terrible year so far for race-day weather, but it’s making 2009 an absolutely classic season for Moto GP racing.

And, as I say, this was such an important win for Ducati, as the Mugello circuit is within easy reach of their factory near Bologna, and to lose here would have been a terrible blow to their morale. It may also have affected the future form of Casey Stoner; who encapsulates the whole team effort, and who they depend on for real success. As it was though, Stoner ended the race a delighted man, and looked to me a rider who is now motivated to fight tooth-and-nail all season to re-gain his Moto GP crown.

This was also the race, both for the Australian and Ducati, which finally answered the critics who said that he could only ever win Moto GPs by qualifying on pole position and then riding away from the rest of the field. Because this was a victory which Stoner won with a truly fighting ride; carving his way back through the field after changing bikes mid-race and changing to slick tires as the track quickly dried.

In some ways, Stoner undoubtedly enjoyed good fortune. Because this was an unusually sober, circumspect performance from Valentino Rossi. At Le Mans, just a couple of weeks ago, let’s remember - and under very similar wet/dry conditions - Rossi threw the race away by crashing out after gambling too quickly on dry tires. Here, his focus almost seemed as much on staying aboard his bike, rather than fighting like a tiger for the lead. It made me wonder whether he’d figured out that one unforced error could be viewed as an aberration, but two on the trot might begin to affect his reputation as the world’s best.

In fairness to him, he was also hindered by a hard choice of front-tire which made it difficult for him to have enough confidence in his Yamaha to really throw it into corners, and also that he was possibly riding with Championship points in mind, this time. Because despite finishing his home Grand Prix in a good third place, he still remains nine points off the top spot, at the moment.

One former Moto GP World Champion who endured a much more disappointing race was Dani Pedrosa, who fell and injured himself just when it appeared that he was coming into something approaching his old form. The word from the Paddock on Sunday evening was that he wasn’t, thankfully, badly injured, but he still seems to suffer particularly poorly from accidents, which is unusual in such a little guy. It’s usually the taller ones - myself included - who end up having the most trouble from falling.

One of the mysteries in motorcycle racing is just how it can be that some riders seemingly fall off all the time, bounce off the tarmac and get up again, whilst others seem to break something vital every time that they come off. There are a number of different theories; that it’s in the way that a rider crashes or falls off, whether it’s pure bad luck or even down to genes in that exactly the same bones in the same type of falls seem to break on some riders and not on others, but it all remains a mystery. In my own case, I seem to have glass bones! Every time that I fall off at high speed, something seems to shatter!

Everyone in the Moto GP Paddock hopes that Pedrosa will recover in time to compete in his home Grand Prix at Barcelona, in a fortnight from now. And one of the great things - injuries aside - about this 2009 season is that nobody now knows what to predict, there - not even the weather, despite the fact that it’s going to be Spain in mid-June! I’ve given up trying to forecast that (just like everything else!) and will be taking both short and long trousers with me, together with both tee-shirts and a rain-proof jacket!

One of the many unexpected sights in Mugello was of Loris Capirossi and Suzuki roaring into the lead, and that image marked them out, too, as now being genuine contenders for a Moto GP race win. So, whilst we can quite safely predict who’s going to be in the first eight places - or two rows - of the Catalonian Grand Prix grid, what we can’t forecast is in which order. It all adds up to the most hotly-contested and unpredictable Moto GP season that I can ever remember…and I can’t wait for the next round!