Red Bull win again to keep world title hopes alive

“I’ve been saying all year that ‘nothing is ever certain in Formula 1’, and Sunday’s Japanese Grand Prix was yet another example. Because it was unseasonably warm at Suzuka, and that created a really high track temperature – which should, on paper, have favoured the Brawns. But, in fact, it was Red Bull and Sebastian Vettel who absolutely dominated the race from start to finish.

With two rounds of this year’s season still to go, Vettel is now sixteen points behind long-time driver’s World Championship leader, Jenson Button. But that’s actually one fewer than Kimi Raikkonen trailed Lewis Hamilton by in 2007, at the same stage. And, as we all know, it was the Ferrari driver who won that year’s World title…

History shows, then, that it’s still more than possible for Red Bull’s young German to become 2009’s World Champion driver. And he’s closing in all the time. Those who saw the race on TV will know that Barrichello and Button both had to fight really hard to finish seventh and eighth. So what happens in Brazil is going to be a fascinating struggle.

Suzuka was another brilliant, error-free performance from Vettel, then, but perhaps he’d be even closer on points to the Brawn boys had he not made a couple of costly mistakes, early in the year. If you look back at my first PUMA column this year from Melbourne, I described the Red Bull star’s late-race crash there as “A ‘first day back at school’ mistake.” And it cost him between six and eight points…

…Okay, so he lost further distance with that drive-through penalty at Singapore only a couple of weeks ago, but that was something which was outside his control. Over the Winter, I’ll bet that he’ll be thinking about that Australian error (which was very much under his control!), and about how, when it comes to winning a World Championship, that you sometimes have to lose a battle in order to win a War…

I still predict Jenson Button to win this year’s ‘War’; but, personally speaking, I’ll be surprised if he clinches it in Brazil. The Interlagos circuit may well feature both a warm track temperature and a selection of slow-speed corners – which the Brawn car should like. But it also contains several high-speed ‘sweepers’ – which ought to suit the Red Bull. So, it’s going to be yet another fascinating Chapter in this year’s Formula 1 story.

Next year’s may be even more interesting, still – considering the fact that Fernando Alonso will spend it driving a Ferrari. Now that should be an explosive combination! Possibly Formula 1’s best all-round driver at very definitely Grand Prix racing’s most famous and charismatic team. On paper, it’s a lethal combination for the rest of the field. But the Scuderia’s actual car this year has obviously been very tricky to drive – and Giancarlo Fisichella is only the latest driver to find it difficult to master.

Plus, in anticipating Maranello’s prospects for next year, you have to ask Formula 1’s ‘golden question’ of the moment – is Felipe Massa going to come back? Yes, I know that he’s physically healthy, and also that he’s test-driving a GP2 car next week, having already successfully tried out a go-kart…but that’s still all quite a long way from being completely psychologically recovered after an horrendous ordeal.

Lots of racing-drivers have come back from big accidents, down the years. And whilst some of them have picked up their careers again as if they’ve never been away, a lot of others haven’t. So, even if Massa is immediately quick again, that’s still a different issue from being absolutely 100% psychologically recovered, and able to drive absolutely flat-out for hours on end.

And, finally…every time that I’ve ever gone to Brazil, it’s always rained at least once there, during the day. Let’s not forget that it’s a tropical country. If it happens during the race at the Interlagos circuit in a fortnight’s time, then I think that the Red Bulls will win 1-2!”